I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls and children of all ages, are you ready to gaaaaamble?!? It's that time again. I've got six feet of frayed extension cable plugged into a cigarette lighter as I frantically bail water out of my gambling flotilla in the middle of the Adriatic. So that's how you know it's time for week 3's picks in the NFL!
Stemkovsky cut my budget yet again.
Now, you know the drill. I give you my expert analysis of the game and then we get a rambling diatribe of nonsense from my brother, Big Dan. Big Dan, as you'll recall, is an intellectual bohemian who knows absolutely nothing about sports. In fact, until recently, he thought Tiger Woods was a big game preserve in the Belgian Congo.
Big Dan. This is the guy I'm losing to. Really.
So anyway, as you know, I give you my picks, Big Dan makes his, and we see who comes out on top. In week 1, Big Dan hand a fantastic week, going 11-5, while I meandered about at 9-7. Week 2 was no better for me, posting yet another 9-7 week. Big Dan actually came back down to earth, also going 9-7.
So after week 2, this is how the standings look:
Big Dan2012-
Matt18142 GB
Still down by 2, I'm going to once more try to out-think the thoughtless, defeat the..uh..defeatless...and take down Big Dan. And I do this for you out there, to prove that there's a sucker born every minute, and you absolutely cannot accurately predict the NFL. It's a total crap shoot. Trust me.
The defeatless?
I would like to mention that I did nail one game, as I did in week 1. The Dallas-Giant game. I predicted the Giants, getting 3, would beat Dallas out-right on an end game TD, 34-28. The actual result? The Giants beat Dallas on an end game field goal, 33-31. So, there's that.
Now on to the Week 3 picks:
Baltimore (-13) over Cleveland
I have to take the Ravens in this game. They're 2-0 and are putting up a whopping 30+ points per game. Willis McGahee is playing like it's 2006 and Joe Flacco really seems to have come into his own. Their defense has been suspect, but against the Browns that really shouldn't matter as the 0-2 Clevelanders have put up a meager 26 points over two weeks. Certainly the Ravens will win this game, but with such a massive spread, the big issue is, will they cover? I say yes, as Flacco and Co. crush the woeful Browns 34-9. Over to you Big Dan:
Big Dan: What is a Brown, exactly?
Me: They're named after their founder, Paul Brown
Big Dan: That's pretty narcissistic. I say Ravens. At least they're all literary and stuff.
Literary crap.
New York Giants (-6 1/2) over Tampa Bay
The G-men are on the road but it really shouldn't matter. The Bucs are flat out terrible and even with star defender Justin Tuck out, I expect the Giant defense to have a field day against Byron Leftwich. Also, the Bucs' run defense has been atrocious in the first two games, so I expect the Giants to feature heavy doses of Ahmed Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. And I haven't even gotten to Eli Manning, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. It's not gonna be remotely close. Giants in a laugher, 34-13. Dan?
Big Dan: Wishing ill on my classmates didn't seem to do any good last week. I'll go with Giants. Also, that'll make this cute ADA in the Bronx happy. Huge Giants fan! It's good times.
Big Dan's Bronx ADA. Possibly.
Green Bay (-6 1/2) over St. Louis
Wow. Yet another road team favored by over a touchdown. But really, the Rams are just plain awful and even though Green Bay hasn't really impressed me...well, they lost at home to the Bengals, so really it's worse than that...even so, I don't see them losing two in a row to sub par NFL teams - and make no mistake, the Rams are sub par. Worse even. Figure Aaron Rodgers having a huge day, finding Jennings a couple of times. Lay the points and expect a 30-17 Packer win. Big Dan?
Big Dan: Green Bay ... them having a football team is like Malone, NY having a football team. I guess that's why they're so good. It's not like they have anything else to do.
Yeah, what is there to do in Green Bay?
New England (-4) over Atlanta
Well, New England has burned me in back to back weeks, barely beating the Bills on opening night and then flat out losing to the Jets last week. And now, they host a top NFC contender in New England. I've decided I'm going to sink with the Patriot ship, at least for one more week. I think the loss to the Jets made Beli-cheat and Brady angry and I expect a bit of a shoot out as the Pats prevail, 36-28. Dan?
Big Dan: I'm going with New England for once. They have reason to celebrate this time.
Me: Celebrate? Celebrate what?
Big Dan: Teddy Kennedy just entered his fifth week of sobriety.
Too soon?
Minnesota (-6 1/2) over San Francisco
Just as the Patriots have burned me week in and week out, the Niners have burned me as well, going 2-0 in beating both the Cardinals and Seahawks. Well, let's see if I can make it 3 for 3. I've been high on the Vikes this year and I see no reason to change my mind, especially with this game being in Minnesota. I expect Favre and Peterson to handle the Niners. Of course, the big question in my mind would be whether or not they can cover. I say yes, barely. Expect a 27-20 Viking win. Over to you, Big Dan:
Big Dan: Minnesota is totally going to screw San Francisco. Not in a gay way ... but in a Viking way.
Me: (Hiding in the closet til that one blows over.)
(still hidin'.)
Houston (-3 1/2) over Jacksonville
As you know, I'm a big Texan believer this year. And so far, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson have been as good as advertised - at least in Week 2 they were. I think they will be again in Week 3, plus, I think Steve Slaton finally has the break out game we've been waiting for. The Jaguars have looked tentative on offense so far and their defense looks like a shell of it's former self - an it wasn't that good to begin with. I see the Texans rolling 24-14. Big D?
Big Dan: I think the Texans are going to skin themselves a nice pair of Panther boots. Sports lingo, right?
Me: not remotely
Big Dan: Aw.
He just doesn't get it.
Detroit (+6) over Washington
Earlier this week, I told Stemkovsky there was no way the Redskins were losing to the Lions. He told me something that would get him excommunicated if I were to forward it to the Pope. So, I had to do a little re-eval if you will and actually, sadly, I think he's right. I think the Lions win this game. Look, they're not going 0-32. They're just not. They're bad. But good Lord, they have to win sometime. And I think they win this week. Or at least cover. But let's go for SHOCK THE WORLD! Lions 21 Redskins 20! Big Dan?
Big Dan: Does home field advantage count when your home field is America's biggest war zone outside of Baghdad?
Matt: Uh. Yes?
Big Dan: Oh. Well, ok, Washington
Torture.
New York Jets (-3) over Tennessee
Despite the fact that the Jets hate the handicapped (http://sportvent.com/http-sportvent-com-thejetshatehandicappedpeople-), they made a big believer out of me over the first two weeks. Their defense looks outrageous. A blitzing attack that appears fast, furious and relentless. And so far, they stopped a Texan team that I've been touting all preseason and the New England Patriots. How can I not pick them to win again and run their record to 3-0? Tennessee desperately needs a win and normally, I'd have to pick a veteran playoff team to eke out the must-win game. But I just can't pick against that Rex Ryan D. Jets win a squeaker and get the cover, 13-9. Over to you, Dan the Man:
Big Dan: Dude, I'm with you on the Jets. Let's see some paralyzed players this week.
Me: Actually, the Jets do have a former player - Dennis Byrd - who was paralyzed during a Jet game.
Big Dan: I wonder if they let him use the parking lot.
Me: I don't think he goes to many games. So are you picking for the Jets or against them?
Big Dan: If they can win with shattered spines and greenstick leg fractures, more power to 'em. But no. Titans
The Jets just pretend this book never happened.
New Orleans (-6) over Buffalo
The Saints offense looks absolutely ridiculous so far, after just two games. Drew Brees has 669 passing yards and 9 TDs in just 8 quarters. His QB rating is 132.9. Those are just phenomenal numbers. Even though this game is in Buffalo, I'm takin' the guy who's on a pace to throw for 72 TDs. Saints in a walk, 40-24. Dan-O?
Big Dan: Did I ever tell you the biggest douchebag in my class is a huge Buffalo fan? His name is Doggett. It's a perfect name for him. He looks like he fell asleep in a tanning booth and talks like a surfer moron. Also, his longest interaction with me was to ask me to help him tie a necktie before a job interview. Ugh. Saints, Saints, Saints.
Me: Okay then.
If there's one thing Big Dan fears, it's the power cosmic.
Chicago (-2) over Seattle
The Bears are in Seattle, fresh off taking down the defending Superbowl Champion Steelers in Week 2. I'm not sure what to make of the Bears yet this season, but I do like their rookie wide receiver, Johnny Knoxville. Or Johnny Knox. Something like that. Cutler is starting to come around and Matt Forte has to bounce back sooner or later, right? Plus, Seattle is just terrible. I think the Bear D bottles up Julius Jones and Justin Forsett and none of the Seahawk receivers really scare me. I'm taking the Bears and givin' the two points. Bears 19 Seahawks 10. Dan?
Big Dan: I'll pick Seattle ... they have that West Coast vibe goin'.
Me: west coast vibe?
Big Dan: They're on a coast, aren't they? It's westerly, no? QED.
West Coast Vibe?
Pittsburgh (-4) over Cincinnati
The Steelers are trying to bounce back from a tough loss to the Bears last week. What better way to cure what ails them then a divisional dust up with the lowly Bengals. The Bengals, meanwhile, are coming off a stunning win in Lambeau. I can't see lightening striking twice for the Bengals and even thought the game's in Cincy, I think the Steelers roll all over the Bengals all game long. Palmer is going to have a rough game against the Steeler D and I think the Roethlisberger carves up the non-existent Bengal secondary. Expect a big game from Santonio Holmes and I'm predicting a breakout game for second year back, Rashard Mendenhall, as the Steelers rumble, 27-10. Mr. Big?
Big Dan: Don't the Cincinatti helmets have that black and orange stripy crap on them? Steelers. Those helmets look like goddamn bullets.
Number one with a bullet: Steeler football.
Oakland (+1 1/2) over Denver
I must be out of my mind. Picking the Raiders and Lions in the same week. But I'm really diggin' on the Raider running game. Darren McFadden and Mike Bush are a bumblin', rumblin', stumblin' force. Where the hell has Chris Berman gone these days, anyway? Now, I know the Raiders are more dysfunctional than Thanksgiving at Mackenzie Phillips house, but I still think they're good enough to give the Broncos fits. I'm counting on a 15-13 Raider win. Dan?
Big Dan: Oooh, I gotta go with Oakland. They're playing in Oakland, right? That place looks like Thunderdome without the charm.
Mad Max extra or Raider fan? Yeah. I can't tell either.
San Diego (-6) over Miami
This game just doesn't excite me. Actually, no game with Miami excites me. Miami is going with a ball-control offense this season, dictating the pace of the game and attempting to control the clock. The problem is, their defense isn't good enough to keep good opposing offenses in check and Miami simply cannot play catchup when they fall behind. I don't expect this to change this Sunday in San Diego, where Darren Sproles (playing for the injured Ladanien Tomlinson), Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates should provide more than enough offense to sink the 'Fins. Let's say, Chargers 26 Miami 14. Over to you, Dan-O:
Big Dan: I just watched Ace Ventura for the first time in a while. Dolphins!
Allllllrighty then!
Indianapolis (+2 1/2) over Arizona
Wow, the Colts actually GETTING points on the road in Arizona. It's sort of a shocking line until you realize this game is gonna be an old fashioned shoot out. The Colts have no hope of stopping Warner to Fitzgerald or Warner to Boldin. And their run defense is atrocious, so Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells should find plenty of room to run. However, the Cardinals aren't exactly the '85 Bears on defense. Hell, they're not even the '85 Bengals. So, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark should all have big nights. This game is going to come down to who has the ball last, and I think that will be the Colts. I'm taking Peyton AND the points and predicted a 41-38 Colt win. Dan?
Big Dan: I guess I'd go with the Colts. It seems to me horses would do well in the West.
Me: That makes absolutely no sense.
Big Dan: Meh.
How am I losing to this guy?
Monday Night:
Dallas (+8 1/2) over Carolina
There is absolutely no reason to take Dallas in this game. That spread is absurd. There's no way, even if the game is in Dallas, that the 'Boys should be giving 8 1/2 points. I don't see anyway they cover this game. In fact, it's only 50/50 that they'll win the game outright. Except...it's not really a big game. Not like the home opener. Or a December game where they need the win to make the playoffs. Or a playoff game. So...Romo should be lights out. Regardless of whether the Dallas D shows up - which they haven't over the first two weeks - Romo will show up. Because this game doesn't matter all that much. If it did, Dallas would be dead. But it's not, so, they're not. Follow that? Just take Dallas, give the points and expect Romo to engineer the cover, 38-27. Big Dan?
Big Dan: I pick Carolina, with the added hope they shatter that big stupid tv screen.
Me: You don't like Jerry Jones new TV?
Big Dan: Dude, that tv should have HUBRIS written on its frame. That thing is not gonna end well.
It's not going to end well. Nope.
Well, here we go again. Let's see Week 3 roll over me like a freight train and see if Big Dan can extend his two game lead over me, or if I can close the gap...
I have no chance. Again. You know the drill. Cheerleader time.
