Fantasy Football 2009 - Running Backs (11 thru 20)

by Matt Minucci

LenDale White is a lean, mean, fightin' machine!

Welcome back! Your dreams were your ticket out. Welcome back, to that same old place that you laughed about. Well the names have all changed since you hung around, but those dreams have remained and they're turned around...  

Welcome back.

Welcome back to my fantasy football preview. Today we finish off the run down on Running Backs. Last time we looked at the top 10 backs to target in any fantasy league. Now, we look at the back end crud that make up picks 11-20 in our run down.

Basically, these are guys you are looking to take in the second or third round, and you're hoping for a solid season, but your team is going to be defined by your picks at WR and QB. If you're relying on any of these guys to carry your team for anything more than some short spurts you're probably in trouble.

Having said that, these are still quality backs to obtain and add to a team that is already strong in other areas. These backs won't kill you (probably) and could even help you win (possibly).  Without further ado:

11. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers  

Gore, not breaking yet another tackle.

Gore is an intriguing pick because, talent-wise, he should be a solid RB to target between the 4th and 8th pick in most drafts. However, injury concerns and concerns about the Niner offense force Gore out of my top ten. Last year, Gore managed a decent 1036 yards rushing with 6 scores. He also had 373 yards receiving and another 2 scores. The problem was, due to several nagging injuries (concussion, neck and ankle problems) Gore managed only 1 touchdown and no 100 yard games after week 11. That will kill your fantasy team down the stretch. On the plus side, Gore really has no worthwhile compliment or competition, so he's a lock to get 20-25 touches a game, if healthy. This could translate into some very nice numbers - but staying healthy is key. And a big IF. My estimation is around 1100 yards rushing and 10 total touchdowns. A great number 2 back and a solid pick in the second round. His primary backup will probably be rookie Glen Coffee, taken by the Niners in the 3rd round of April's draft. But he's not likely to see all that much time as long as Gore is healthy.

12. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys  

Barber, getting trucked again.

This one hurts. Marion the Barbarian came into last season taking over the role as THE primary back in what was supposed to be a vaunted Dallas offensive attack. It just never seemed to work out that way. Though, for the first 12 games of the season, Barber was pretty much as good as advertised, rumbling for 885 yards rushing and 7 TDs, as well as chipping in 417 yards receiving and 2 more scores. Sadly, he was never the same after being hobbled by a dislocated right toe and fizzled down the stretch, rushing for only 51 yards over the last 5 games of the season. He says he's healthy this season and primed for a return to his bruising ways. And he should be right, in that, if healthy, he should be a big source of TDs as he will be a prime target to get the ball in the red zone. However, his injury gave Tashard Choice a chance to shine, and even before Barber's injury, he was losing carries to the electric Felix Jones (who also went down with an injury.) It's a very crowded running back situation in Big-D and this will serve to limit the overall production you can expect from the Barbarian. I'd hope for around 900 rushing yards and around 300 receiving yards. However, I do think he can amass 10-12 TDs as well, and that makes him a top-15 back. I'd look to handcuff him to Tashard Choice, who would likely be his backup if Barber were to get hurt. Felix Jones will get his carries and touches out of the backfield regardless of whether the 'Boys go with Choice or Barber. Jones could actually be penciled in for 1000 total yards and 6-7 scores, making him an excellent bye-week replacement at running back.  

13. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins  

The many faces of Clinton Portis. Not shown: Portis scoring a TD.

My editor has professed to me his deep and abiding love for all things Portis, but I just don't see it. Portis bragged that he wanted 20 TDs last season but didn't even come close as he couldn't even manage half those totals. His final numbers were somewhat impressive, as he charlie garnered 1487 yards on a whopping 342 carries with 9 touchdowns. He added another 218 yards receiving but did lose 3 fumbles. However, Portis was another one of those backs that started out like a house-a-fire and then lost it midway through the season as the grind began to take its toll. Knee, hip and neck problems hobbled him over the final seven games of the season (though he didn't miss a game) and he was even benched in week 14 for calling out head coach Jim Zorn. Portis and Zorn say this is all water under the bridge and Portis says he's primed for a big year. He better be, because with the way his salary balloons in 2010, if 2009 isn't electric, the Redskins could conceivably cut him after the '09 season. However, he is in an offense with no real secondary RB threat and is a lock for 300+ carries. This is very appealing with so many other RB tandems out there. Take Portis early in the 2nd round as either a top #2 back or your #1 back to compliment either a Randy Moss/Larry Fitzgerald pick, or a Tom Brady pick, depending on your league's scoring rules. I'd expect no less than 1200 yards rushing and 8-10 TDs if the 28 year old back is able to stay healthy. For those that must know, Portis' main backup will be Ladell Betts. Zorn has said he wants to get Betts more carries this season to keep Portis fresh, but Betts himself was an injury mess last season and I don't see him eating into Portis' production in a major way. But I'd take Betts just to insure yourself in case Portis does go down to injury.

14. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

No one...NO ONE...wants to tackle this guy. He's a truck.

The Giants locked up Jacobs to a hefty, lucrative contract this offseason in part to reward the monster year he had last year. And make no mistake, Jacobs was - and is - a beast. He missed three entire games due to injury and was banged up for a bunch of others and still mashed and bashed his way to 15 scores on 1089 rushing yards. This included five multiple TD games, including a high water mark of 3 scores vs. the Panthers on December 21st, which undoubtedly won some fantasy leagues for those that played him that week. The problem with Jacobs is two-fold. One, you have to hope that he doesn't get hurt, and two, you have to hope he doesn't get complacent now that he earned that lucrative contract. The guy is a bruiser however and his staying healthy is clearly the bigger concern of the two. He doesn't project to having more than 225 carries, which should get him 1050 rushing yards and 10-12 TDs. He doesn't factor in the receiving game at all. If you take Jacobs, you must get his backup and tandem rushing partner - Ahmed Bradshaw - who would be the primary back if (when) Jacobs goes down to injury.

15. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Thomas, shown here pointing at Reggie Bush on the bench.

Pierre Thomas. What to make of this guy. He's one of the ultimate high risk/high reward guys, as he burst onto the scene last season, subbing in for an injured Deuce McAllister and later, an injured Reggie Bush. He became a vital cog in the Saints attack, rushing for 9 TDs in limited time and receiving for another 3 scores. He had over 900 yards total offense and 12 scores, mostly over the last 6 games of the season. This year, he's going to be the primary back, with Reggie Bush serving as a receiving threat out of the backfield and a change of pace, third down back. The Saints have also planned to use Thomas as part of their version of the Wildcat offense, and this can only increase his value. And if you believe in things like this - Thomas will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season and will be highly motivated to play for a big contract. I'd pencil him in for around 1000 yards rushing, 9-10 TDs and another 300 yards receiving. A solid year for a solid #2 back. His obvious handcuff is Reggie Bush, but Bush always tends to be way over-valued and it's unlikely you'll get him and Thomas. Third on the Saints depth chart behind Thomas and Bush will probably end up being Mike Bell, who had 8 TDs for the Broncos back in '06. Still relatively young at 26, Bell could get a look this year on the fantasy waiver wire should Bush and Thomas both go down.

16. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions  

When you're a Lion, you get used to lying on the ground a lot.

Kevin Smith had a very solid rookie campaign for the legendarily bad 08 Detroit Lions - the 0-16 Lions. While the Lions didn't win a game, Smith still put up very respectable numbers - especially for a rookie, by rushing for 976 yards, receiving for another 286 yards and scoring 8 TDs. Now, this was only over 12 starts. This year he'll be expected to shoulder the full 16 game load. With Matt Stafford in the fold as their franchise QB and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson as their all-world WR, the Lions have the makings of a solid offense. Expect Smith to rumble for between 1000-1100 yards and net 8-10 TDs. The Lions signed Maurice Morris and drafted rookie RB Aaron Brown, but neither should steal substantial carries away from Smith. Brown doesn't project as much more than a scat back, so if you're looking to grab Smith's backup, I'd go with Morris. But I have to tell you, if you're starting Maurice Morris, you're in a world of hurt.

17. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins  

Brown elevated his game in 08.

Brown rebounded from a torn ACL in 2007 to have his best season as a pro in 2008. It was he and the rest of the Miami offense that introduced us to the Wildcat formation and Brown thrived in it, scoring 5 TDs (4 rushing and 1 passing) vs. the Patriots in Week 3. While it's unlikely the Wildcat will have that much success, if it continues to be even moderately successful, expect Brown to post all-pro numbers. Last season Brown tallied 916 rushing yards and 10 TDs in a time share with Ricky Williams. Brown also caught 33 balls for 254 yards and had a passing TD out of the wildcat giving him 11 total TDs on the year. His time share with Williams keeps him from monster numbers, but he should be a solid bet to get around 900-1000 yards rushing, around 250 receiving and 8-10 TDs in '09. Ricky Williams will split time with Brown and the drafting of versatile Pat White could cut into some of Browns time in the wildcat - but not enough to seriously impact his value.

18. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers  

Ryan Grant: His teammates hit him with soap and call him 'tastycakes.'

Green Bay is one of the few teams remaining that employs a single back to spearhead their offense, rather than two or even three. Ryan Grant is their man, and he's one of the few rushers to carry the ball over 300 times last season. He crashed his way through defenses to amass 1203 yards on the ground last season, but his value is hindered because he only rushed for 4 TDs. He did have 1 more receiving, but he's not a major factor in the Green Bay aerial attack, having just 116 receiving yards all last season. Grant is THE back in Green Bay, but there just doesn't seem to be a lot of scoring opportunities for him. Aaron Rogers threw for 28 TDs last season and ran for another 4, hogging much of the spotlight from Grant. Expect Grant to get a few more rushing TDs this season - but not all that much more. Because of his lack of value in the passing game and his lack of a true scoring touch, Grant falls to the back of the top 20 RBs. Still, he's a valuable number 2 back and can be relied on to amass a lot of yards and carries. Look for another 1200 yards and hopefully 7-8 TDs. Grant doesn't have a reliable backup and right now the Packers are undecided as to who to go with as their backup RB. It's a training camp battle between Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn. It's too close to call right now, but my guess is that Brandon Jackson gets first crack at it if Grant gets hurt.

19. Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

Johnson sure seems....eager....in this picture.

Oh how the mighty have fallen. It was just in 2006 that LJ had a 21 TD campaign, with 1700 yards rushing on over 400 carries. This season propelled him into the top 2 or 3 in RBs for fantasy leagues in 2007. But two injury plagued seasons later and LJ is now down at the bottom of the RB food chain. After missing the entire month of October last season due to injury, Johnson managed just 874 yards rushing and a meager 5 TDs. He was virtually non-existent in the passing game. However, with a new offensive coordinator and a new offense in place for 2009, along with Matt Cassell at QB, the Chiefs expect to run the ball a lot more and this bodes well for LJ. Early reports have him looking electric at camp so far, and his attitude seems to have improved dramatically. This could have Johnson poised to burst out with a monster season. I wouldn't expect 2006 numbers, but he could amass 1200-1300 yards rushing and 12-14 TDs. However, this is Larry Johnson we're talking about. He's moody and he appears to be breaking down as he ages. He's also expected to split at least a little bit of time with Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith. I'd temper any excitement and lower expectations to around 1100 yards and 8-10 TDs and you should be pleasantly surprised with his eventual totals. Make sure to grab Jamaal Charles as the handcuff as I expect him to make more of an impact than Kolby Smith.

20. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders  

Even McFadden thinks it's funny you drafted him.

It's a tough call, narrowing down the long list of questionable running backs to find the one among them that can slide in at number 20 on this list. There's a lot of solid 'gambles' at this point - because that's what you're down to when you're talking about the 20th best back. A gamble. Sure Marshawn Lynch could be solid, but he's suspended for the first 2 or 3 games of the season and Fred Jackson is poised to eat into his carries considerably. Thomas Jones is getting older and will be hard pressed to equal his amazing career year in 08. Joseph Addai's grip on the starting job in Indy is tenuous at best as Donald Brown looks to take the rock from him quite a bit this year. Willie Parker has Rashard Mendenhall breathing down his neck. Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells could be breakout rookies, but there's a ton of uncertainty there. Tim Hightower still looks like the goal line back in Arizona, while Moreno is competing with Lamont Jordan, Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torain in Denver. Ernest Graham and Derrek Ward head up the dual attack in Tampa while Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and LeRon McClain battle it out in Baltimore. Amidst all this muck, my best guess at this point is Darren McFadden in Oakland. Injuries ruined his rookie campaign in 2008 and McFadden managed just 499 yards rushing and 285 yards receiving. He also had 4 TDs. But he did show flashes of brilliance throughout the season, with a 164 yard, 1 TD effort against KC in September and a 114 total yard effort (68 receiving) with a TD against New England in December. He reported to camp this year in top shape and if he stays healthy, my guess is that he could explode onto the scene in 09, with around 1300 total yards and 6-8 TDs. He is expected to see a lot of competition from the talented Michael Bush. So, if you're drafting McFadden, be sure to take Bush along for the ride.  

Sleepers & BUSTS  

Sleepers & Busts.

At this point, I just want to run down a few of my sleepers and busts at the RB spot for the 2009 NFL season.  

Sleepers:

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders 

Michael Bush.

Admittedly a deep sleeper, Bush showed his talent in the last game of 08, rumbling for 177 yards and 2 TDs against the Bucs. He'll be fighting for carries with Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden this year, but he could conceivably bust out at the feature back in Oakland if McFadden goes down with injury again and Fargas continues to age.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers

A beast. Plus, he'll never get a neck injury because he doesn't have one.

The big, bruising Mendenhall was poised to take on a large role in offensive as a rookie last season before a broken shoulder in week 4 cost him the rest of the season. This year though, his shoulder is healed and his legs are rested and expect him to take the ball at the goal line for the Steelers. He should be a good bet for 8-10 TDs just as a goal line sub for Parker. But I think Parker will get hurt and Mendenhall will be the starter before the end of the season. This could translate into huge numbers for the big Steeler power back.

Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos

Moreno also won the heisman in full contact Leap Frog.

There's no question Moreno is the most talented back on the Bronco roster. It's just a question of whether or not he'll get the ball enough to be relevant for fantasy leagues. The Denver RB situation is a crowded mess, with LaMont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, Ryan Torain (who was just cut) and Correll Buckhalter all vying for carries. Moreno should still get the majority of work, but if he really shines, he could emerge as an absolute stud. Right now he looks to be good for 800 yards and 5-6 TDs, but if he takes hold of the job full time, you could tack on another 400 yards rushing and double the TDs.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts

Don Brown, leaving defenders in the dust.

Brown is an impressive rookie RB out of Connecticut, where he amassed 3800 yards and 33 TDs in starting 23 of 37 games for the Huskies. He's been a standout at camp so far, and the Colts are absolutely ecstatic about what he brings to the table. Drafted with their first round pick, Brown is not expected to sit on the bench and will be on the field a lot, sharing time with Jospeh Addai. However, Addai looked lost far too often last season and suffered a myriad of injuries. He even had offseason knee surgery this season. If Addai looks sluggish or falters in camp, look for Brown to kick open the door and take on a major role in the Colts talented offensive attack.  

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens  

Even face-noogies can't slow Rice down.

Rice had an injury plagued rookie season and was unable to wrest control of the RB job away from the equally injury Willis McGahee, as the Ravens looked to LeRon McClain too often last season. However, this year, the Ravens plan on employing McClain as the fullback and using Rice in tandem with McGahee at RB. McGahee appears to be on the downside of his career, however, and injuries are taking their toll. Expect Rice to be a yardage machine, however his TDs will be modest as the Ravens will still probably utilize McClain at the goal line. However, if Rice receives the lions share of carries from McGahee, he could bust some long TD runs and his numbers could be better than expected.

BUSTS:

Uhm. Busts.

Thomas Jones, New York Jets  

'Sup, Playa?

Jones had an amazing career year at the age of 30 last season for the Jets, rumbling for 1312 yards on the ground and 15 total TDs. With those outstanding numbers, Jones will likely be drafted too high in 2009. Don't be fooled. Jones will be 31 this season and coming off a season wherein he carried the ball nearly 300 times. At his age, RBs usually decline, not improve. Plus the Jets plan on using Leon Washington a lot more in their offensive game plan. I'd say to expect 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs from Jones and draft accordingly.

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills  

Buffalo RB...so easy a..uh...well, you know.

Lynch is facing a three game suspension for a weapons charge stemming from last April. His numbers will be impacted for at least the three games he misses for that. But on top of that, Fred Jackson had a stellar year playing for an injured Lynch at times last season. Jackson finished with nearly 900 total yards and 3 TDs. If Jackson stands out during Lynch's suspension, Lynch will find himself in a timeshare. Add to that the Bills signing of Dominic Rhodes at the deck appears to be stacked against Lynch having a standout 2009 campaign.  

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

Remember, never judge a RB by his uh...freakishly large chest.

Fast Willie had a miserable, injury plagued 2008 regular season but shone in the playoffs as he helped lead the Steelers to their Superbowl victory. However, going into 2009 Parker has the 'injury-prone' label firmly affixed to him, especially after rushing for a mere 791 yards and 5 TDs last year. Add to that the fact that Parker will have to fend off a severe challenge from Rashard Mendenhall and the writing appears to be on the wall for Fast Willie.  

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Looks good until you realize that when he landed he broke every bone in his body.

A one time top fantasy pick as the main back in the vaunted Colts attack, Addai has fallen on hard times and is a very risky pick. Last year he managed only 544 yards rushing and 7 total TDs (2 receiving). He lost significant carries to Dominic Rhodes last year and had only 1 100 yard rushing performance. Add to that his off-season knee surgery and it's easy to see why the Colts burned their top pick on a RB - Donald Brown. My advice is to either grab Brown as a 3rd RB option or steer clear of the Colts RB situation entirely, as I don't see Addai helping anyone.  

Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals  

You'd be better off drafting this Hightower.

To call Hightower a bust isn't entirely accurate as it's debatable how much value he had in the first place. But the fact remains that he scored 10 times last season and supplanted Edgrian James as the Cardinals feature back for a large portion of last season. However, Hightower managed just 399 yards rushing on 143 attempts for a 2.9 YPC. That's embarrassingly bad, and it's no wonder the Cards took Beanie Wells in the draft. Wells projects to slide right in as the Cards feature back, leaving Hightower as nothing more than a goal-line back. However, Wells is just as big as Hightower, if not bigger, and it's conceivable Wells will just stay in there for most goal-line work. To expect Hightower to reach double-digit TDs again in 2009 is a fool's gambit.

Well, that's about it for my rundown on the RBs for the 2009 Fantasy Football season. Tune back in next time as I give a long look to the top Quarterbacks to target for your fantasy team.

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